估值模型：1c9067e
Investment Snapshot
| 項目 | 當前狀態 |
|---|---|
| 現價（2026-10-08） | NT$286.00 |
| Target date / forward earnings | 2027-12-31 / NTM-at-target proxy (FY2027E trajectory; FY2028E unavailable) |
| Base target | NT$338 |
| Expected Return（至 target date） | +7.3% |
Scenario Analysis
| Scenario | Probability | EPS × Forward P/E | Target | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 30.0% | NT$20 × 8x | NT$160 | -44.1% |
| Base | 50.0% | NT$26 × 13x | NT$338 | +18.2% |
| Bull | 20.0% | NT$30 × 15x | NT$450 | +57.3% |
Probability-weighted Expected Return: +7.3%.
Investment Thesis
- 題材／產業鏈：高科技廠務工程與海外設廠 · 水氣化系統、製程設備與廠務工程；報酬取決於高科技建案轉換、地域／專案組合、毛利與工程款回收。
- 中信指出 2Q26 營收 NT4.67，台系／美系記憶體新案與舊案結案推動，但中國新建案毛利率約 10–15%，使單季毛利率降至 24%。[中信, Aug 2026]
- FY27 上修來自晶圓廠、記憶體與 OSAT 建案時程更明確，以及美系記憶體銅鑼 P2／林口專案；這是可追蹤的案源，不是已完成營收。[中信, Aug 2026]
- 中信 FY2027E EPS NT23.82；Base 使用 NT286 高於 5／20／60／240 日均線，右側結構成立；但保守情境下機率加權總報酬約等同 0050，暫列 Watchlist。
- 上游材料交付延遲、記憶體／OSAT／晶圓廠建案時程後移、中國低毛利案件比重升高或工程款回收拉長，均會壓低獲利與評價。
Model assumptions & uncertainty
- Forward earnings basis: NTM-at-target proxy: direct FY2028E unavailable; FY2027E trajectory × scenario P/E is explicitly used.
- Evidence quality: Medium: August current report and July cross-check agree on high-tech facility demand but differ by 10–11% on EPS and on the scale/timing of new memory and OSAT projects.
- Freshness: 49–87 days as of 2026-10-08.
- Fallback: Base EPS NT26.33 and uses 13x, well below its 17x target multiple, because China low-margin work and project timing remain material.
- Sensitivity: Memory/OSAT/foundry project awards, conversion speed, China project margin, material delivery and working-capital collection determine the state.
Latest Material Evidence
Current state is supported by the latest material evidence listed below. [中信; 群益; FinMind]
Sources (3)
- 中信 — 6613 朋億
- Metadata: document_id: 6450; chunk_id: 68854
- 群益 — 6613 朋億
- Metadata: document_id: 5048; chunk_id: 63486
- FinMind — TaiwanStockPrice
- Metadata: document_id: n/a; chunk_id: n/a
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