6278 台表科 · 1c9067e

估值模型：1c9067e

Investment Snapshot

項目	當前狀態
現價（2026-10-08）	NT$248.00
Target date / forward earnings	2027-12-31 / NTM at target date (FY2027E anchored)
Base target	NT$300
Expected Return（至 target date）	+12.6%

Scenario	Probability	EPS × Forward P/E	Target	Return
Bear	30.0%	NT$13 × 11x	NT$143	-42.3%
Base	50.0%	NT$20 × 15x	NT$300	+21.0%
Bull	20.0%	NT$24 × 18x	NT$432	+74.2%

Probability-weighted Expected Return: +12.6%.

題材／產業鏈：AI 光通訊與台股受惠鏈 · 800G/1.6T 光模組 PCBA、AI server SMT、DDR5 與全球化製造。
統一估 2027 年非顯示營收占比 48%、毛利率 16.3%、EPS NT$22.42；核心不是顯示器復甦，而是高毛利 non-display mix 與固定費用槓桿。[統一, Jun/Sep 2026]
Daiwa確認美系 tier-one 光模組新客戶將於 4Q26 試產 800G/1.6T，並預估光模組營收於 2027 年占比 15–20%；這是 Base case 最重要的外部驗證。[Daiwa, Aug 2026]
但 2026 年產品組合仍有 49% TFT-LCD，且 2Q26 毛利率僅 11.8%；高 EPS 必須靠光通訊、LEO、server 的量產，而非只靠接到新客戶。
光通訊客戶試產未轉大規模出貨、AI/LEO/DDR5 訂單遞延、顯示器需求再轉弱或材料成本無法轉嫁，都會使毛利率與 EPS 低於模型。

Model assumptions & uncertainty

Forward earnings basis: NTM-at-target proxy: FY2027E EPS × scenario forward P/E; direct FY2028E forecasts were not available.
Evidence quality: Medium: a current direct update supports the mix shift, while Daiwa confirms customer/onboarding and 2027 growth guidance but supplies no target price.
Freshness: 8–49 days as of 2026-10-08.
Fallback: Base EPS NT $20 d i sco u n t s 統一^{'} s NT$ 22.42 because optical transceiver, AI-server and LEO volumes must move from trial/initial shipments into repeat mass production.
Sensitivity: Optical-transceiver customer ramp, high-margin non-display mix, gross-margin expansion and global SMT capacity utilization dominate valuation.
PEG check: Not used: the earnings step-up is driven by mix/operating leverage and qualification timing rather than a stable growth rate.

Current state is supported by the latest material evidence listed below. [統一; 統一; Daiwa; FinMind]

Sources (4)