估值模型：1c9067e
Investment Snapshot
- Benchmark: 0050 元大台灣50
- Method: Top-down fallback
- Evidence quality: Provisional / Medium-Low — constituent-weighted forward consensus is not yet available.
- Analysis / Target date: 2026-10-08 → 2027-12-31 (14.8 months)
- Earnings period: FY2028E / NTM aggregate-earnings proxy at the 2027-12-31 target
Inputs: sourced facts vs model assumptions
Observed / sourced inputs
| Input | Value | Date / basis | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current price | NT$114.95 | price date: 2026-10-08 | FinMind |
| Valuation basis | 28.19x trailing P/E | valuation-basis date: 2026-09-30 | Yuanta ETFs |
| Earnings evidence | 2027 Taiwan earnings: roughly +24% to +32% external range; TSMC FY2028E: NT$189.91–195.67 | current research | Calibration evidence; not 0050 aggregate consensus |
Earnings basis: FY2028E / NTM aggregate proxy — 2026-09-30 ETF close NT3.975 per ETF unit**, then bridged through FY2027 and FY2028 scenario growth. It is not constituent-weighted forward consensus.
Date alignment: price_date = 2026-10-08; valuation_basis_date = earnings_basis_date = 2026-09-30. The earnings proxy is derived only from the same-date 9/30 price and P/E; scenario returns use the latest 10/08 price.
Model assumptions
Bear/Base/Bull earnings growth and target P/E, as well as 20% / 60% / 20% probabilities, are model assumptions — not market consensus. FY2027 growth is calibrated to the current Taiwan range; the FY2028 +0% / +10% / +20% extension is explicitly provisional because full constituent-weighted consensus is unavailable. Recent TSMC FY2028E estimates of NT$189.91–195.67 support continued forward growth for the dominant constituent, but do not substitute for index consensus.
Benchmark Thesis
AI-led Taiwan large-cap earnings can grow into part of today’s valuation, but expected return depends on earnings delivery and partial P/E normalization.
Scenario Analysis
| Scenario | Probability | FY2027 / FY2028 earnings growth | Forward P/E | Target | Return | Short rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 20% | +7% / 0% | 20x | NT$85.1 | -26.0% | FY2027 stays positive but FY2028 stalls; forward P/E compresses below the observed trailing multiple. |
| Base | 60% | +25% / +10% | 25x | NT$136.6 | +18.9% | FY2027 matches current evidence; a deliberately tempered FY2028 bridge and moderate forward-P/E normalization. |
| Bull | 20% | +35% / +20% | 29x | NT$186.7 | +62.5% | Earnings beat current FY2027 calibration and forward growth stays strong while the premium multiple holds. |
Model output — probability-weighted expected return (ER_0050): +18.6%.
Negative aggregate earnings growth is not embedded in the default Bear case. If tail-risk modelling is required later, it must be added as a separately disclosed Stress case with its own low probability; it must not be silently blended into Bear.
What Would Upgrade This State
Replace the FY2028 bridge with 0050 constituent-weighted forward consensus; then append a new investment snapshot and recalculate ER_0050. Do not rewrite this provisional snapshot.
Sources
- FinMind — TaiwanStockPrice — 2026-09-30 / 2026-10-08
- 0050 closes: NT114.95 respectively.
- Yuanta ETFs — 0050 basic information — 2026-09-30
- 2026-09-30 trailing P/E: 28.19x.
- Taiwan 2027 earnings calibration: roughly +24% to +32% across current external estimates.
- This calibrates FY2027 only; it is not represented as complete 0050 constituent-weighted consensus.
- Morgan Stanley / Goldman Sachs — TSMC FY2028 estimates — 2026-10-05
- FY2028E EPS NT195.67; directional support for the dominant constituent, not an index aggregate.
其他版本：目前公司頁